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Workshop on Probabilistic Forecasting of High-Impact Weather Events - April 2012

April 25th, 2012, Internationales Wissenschaftsforum, Hauptstr. 242, 69117 Heidelberg, Germany.

The workshop took place at Internationales Wissenschaftsforum Heidelberg on April 25th, 2012 (


Tilmann Gneiting und Thordis Thorarinsdottir

Accurate forecasts of severe weather events are of crucial societal relevance, and require the joint effort of atmospheric and mathematical scientists. High-impact extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and/or strong winds are often associated with intensive atmospheric fronts with strong gradients or deep moist convection. These events are governed by mesoscale atmospheric dynamics, operating on horizontal scales ranging from a few to several hundred kilometers. The understanding of these dynamics and their inclusion in modern numerical weather prediction models is under constant development, while statistical simulation methods are called for to explore the interacting dynamics that happen at subgrid-scales. Similarly, statistical post-processing of the outputs of the numerical weather prediction model is an essential component of precise forecasts that aims to correct for biases and the imperfect representation of uncertainty in the forecast. This workshop will bring together atmospheric scientists and mathematical scientists to discuss the current challenges in predicting severe weather events, and to further strengthen the connections between the two disciplines.


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