Physically coherent probabilistic weather forecasts via ensemble copula coupling
Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Norwegian Computing Center, Oslo, Tilmann Gneiting, Heidelberger Institut fur Theoretische Studien, HITS gGmbH
ECC is a semi-parametric approach, with continuous marginals and a non-parametric, discrete representation of the multivariate correlation structure which has performed well in several case studies. We have studied discrete copulas which form the mathematical-theoretical frame of the ECC approach, and it has been shown that ECC provides an overarching frame for several seemingly unrelated postprocessing methods scattered in literature. In the second phase of WEX-MOP, we will extend the ECC setting in several ways with the goal of providing a theoretically sound, flexible multivariate postprocessing technique which is extremely easy to implement in any situation.
