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Forecast Verification, extreme events, and spatio and spatio-temporal structure

Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Norwegian Computing Center, Oslo, Tilmann Gneiting and Sebastian Lerch, Heidelberger Institut für Theoretische Studien, HITS gGmbH

While the restoration of physical coherence in probabilistic forecasts is particularly important when extreme weather is impending, there is a notable lack of theoretically justifiable methods for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts of rare and extreme events, as well as of spatial and spatio-temporal fields. To assess the use of these methods in next-generation mesoscale prediction systems for extreme weather, novel tools for forecast verification are required, that are tailored to probabilistic forecasts of extreme events, as well as spatial and spatio-temporal weather fields.  We will develop these tools along with the underlying probabilistic theory within the project parts led by the Heidelberg group.



Publication:

Friederichs, P. and T. Thorarinsdottir (2012): Forecast verification scores for extreme value distributions with an application to peak wind prediction. Environmetrics (submitted, arXiv)

 

 

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