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Ensemble Calibration for Weather Trajectories

Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach - Michael Scheuerer und Tilman Gneiting

This project, funded by the German Weather Service (DWD), aims to further develop statistical postprocessing methods for ensemble forecasts (mainly precipitation but also temperature and wind), and to apply and tune them to the COSMO-DE ensemble prediction system operated by DWD. The method to be developed shall be spatially adaptive on the one hand, i.e. it should translate the raw ensemble predictions into a probability distribution in a locally appropriate way. On the other hand, the method shall be able to map spatial dependence structures so that the resulting forecasts can be interpreted as full, physically consistent forecast fields rather than just at each point individually.

Publications:

Scheuerer, M. and Gneiting, T. (2014): Evaluating predictive performance. Mathematics of Planet Earth, Lecture Notes in Earth System Sciences, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 15-18.

Scheuerer, M. and Büermann, L.: Spatially adaptive post-processing of ensemble forecasts for temperature. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, doi: 10.1111/rssc.12040.

Scheuerer, M.: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting using ensemble model output statistics. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1002/qj.2183.
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